Election 2020: Racing towards November

As the 2020 presidential election campaign heats up and polls show Joe Biden holding a lead of 7.5 points (49.2% to 41.7%) over President Trump, while the betting odds suggest a tighter spread, we must caution that the race is far from over. Indeed, pollsters and oddsmakers are hardly infallible as just four years ago, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the presidential race by four or five percentage points one month before Americans cast their ballots. Market historians, and perhaps everyone, should be thrilled to see the page turn to 2021, even as the winner of the Oval Office will still be dealing with COVID-19, as well as political and economic uncertainties.